Louisville +6 5.5* NCAAF POD / Louisville +210 1* play
Louisville has already been thoroughly tested by Auburn in the opener and a much improved Houston team with new head coach Tom Herman. This is extreme line value as I believe it would have been pk'm if it was in week 1. Clemson has literally played nobody and still has many red flags in my opinion and do not warrant being nearly a TD favorite on the road especially on a short week. Two reasons why Louisville has value on this line and why they are large under dogs. They lost to Auburn who nearly lost to Jacksonville State last week (Auburn clearly looking ahead to LSU), and Louisville lost last week to Houston at home as a double digit favorite, but Houston not getting any credit, and Louisville obviously cares more about their ACC schedule anyway.
This is fresh start for Louisville, and I believe they have the better coach in this one. Louisville was pretty dominant in ACC play last year by the numbers and although they lost just as much as Clemson they acquired by transfers more depth, and arguably have a better overall team although that has not shown up yet.
Clemson has a real challenge here on the road on a short week vs. a very good coach in Petrino. Deshawn Watson is getting a ton of hype and has been excellent, but remember this team lost 79 starts along their offensive line and return just 1 starter. Watson warmed up against Wofford and Appalachian State and this game on the road is about to get much much faster. Given who they have played there are some really big red flags. Only 46% success rate on third down (Louisville is better at 48.15%), they turned the ball over 4 times, they are -3 in sacks differential, and they only rushed for 4.16 ypc. Defensively this team is not an automatic top tier defense.
Clemson lost 29 total letterman more than any other team in the ACC, and most of them on defense went to the NFL. The defensive line was hit the hardest, and now we are talking about two key units that you need to have success when you step up in competition. We are talking about the offensive and defensive line, and it's going to be difficult for Clemson to win the battle in the trenches. Sure they have the better QB, but Louisville actually out gained this Clemson team on the road last year, but lost because of a fumble in the end zone. Louisville will win this game if they take care of the ball. For that reason I'm going to play a bit on the money line as well!
